Tuesday, July 24, 2012

No evidence of increase in economic Inequality in Gujarat by Bibek Debroy

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: sanjeev 

Bottom of page has links to 12 Articles on the Gujarat growth story.

Let's revisit the Gujarat issue again.  The Planning Commission now has average rates of growth in GSDP (gross State domestic product) for States till 2011-12.  This is real growth, growth in constant prices.  For all States, average annual growth was 6.16% from 1994-95 to 2001-02 and increased to 8.28% from 2004-05 to 2011-12 (http://planningcommission.nic.in/data/datatable/0904/tab_103.pdf). 

What happened to the missing years, from 2002-03 to 2003-04?  That's because there is a typo in the first row of the table, where the growth rates are given, and I wanted to give you exactly what the site says.  If you read it more carefully, you realize 6.16% is from 1994-95 to 2004-05 and 8.28% is from 2005-06 to 2011-12.  Why use these cut-off periods, since there is no clear threshold in terms of Plans? 

I have no idea, probably because Planning Commission wanted to report growth separately, post-UPA.  Let's not get into that.  So all States, on an average, have improved growth records, post 2004-05.  What does the same table tell about Gujarat's growth record?  It increased from 6.45% in the first period to 10.08% in the second period.  Therefore, there should be no dispute that Gujarat's growth record improved.

And yes, there were other States that also significantly improved growth records in the second period – Bihar (11.42%, up from 4.94%), Maharashtra (10.75%, up from 4.97%), Sikkim (12.62%, up from 6.30%), Tamil Nadu (10.97%, up from 5.54%), Uttarakhand (12.37%, up from 4.61%), Chandigarh (10.78%, up from 9.61%) and Delhi (11.43%, up from 7.62%). 

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In 2009-10, the "real" Gini in Gujarat was 0.30.  He didn't give me the "real" Gini for 2004-05, but that apples versus oranges issue isn't that critical, since the differences between the two aren't that much.  The point is that there is no evidence of an increase in inequality in Gujarat. 


For the record, the highest "real" Ginis were 0.36 in Delhi, 0.38 in Chandigarh and 0.37 in Puducherry.  Therefore, in the debate over Gujarat, let's not get bogged down in what are facts that cannot be contested.  If we don't pointlessly muddy waters, we will have a more interesting and fruitful discussion.

Also read earlier articles on Gujarat’s performance
 
1. Gujarat village with 24 hour Wifi, CCTV cameras, solar powered lamps - http://ibnlive.in.com/news/gujarat-village-with-24hr-wifi-cctv-cameras/269059-3.html
3. Electricity Lessons from Gujarat MINT editorial - http://www.livemint.com/2012/06/17210346/Views--Electricity-lessons-fr.html
5. Gujarat sets the Agenda for Energy Sector by Shashi Shekhar - http://dailypioneer.com/columnists/item/51653-gujarat-sets-agenda-for-energy-security.html
7. Good ideas from Gujarat are neither communal or secular by Sumit Gulati - http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/Sumitup/entry/lessons-from-gujarat-good-ideas-not-communal-or-secular
9. Killing with kindness by sanjeev nayyar – Has data on dramatic increase in Gujarat cotton production - http://www.businessstandard.com/india/news/sanjeev-nayyar-killingkindness/273317/
11. Where Modi stands in relation to Gujarat miracle by Swapan Dasgupta -
 
Warm Regards
sanjeev nayyar
https://twitter.com/#!/NayyarSanjeev

 

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