Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Gates, Butter and Guns

US SecDef Robert Gates III is now in India, giving a sales pitch for US weapons, in the hopes of becoming India's leading arms supplier. While India shouldn't swoon over the American wooing, it should see the benefit in diversifying its pool of suppliers, so that no one entity is in a position to hold us hostage. As we can see, even our longtime Russian friends don't mind taking us for granted, charging an extra billion on the Gorshkov, selling the same tech to the Chinese, etc. I don't like the idea of someone whipsawing us against the Chinese, by selling to both of us, and then reaping the profits as we both try to out-purchase each other. We have to make the most of multi-polarity, and we owe it to ourselves to make the most of our purchasing power. We'll get the most leverage by allowing a place for everyone at our table. Gates is making noises that he's willing to overlook our rejection of the 123 Deal, as he pursues the arms trade agreements with us.

But obviously the tech transfer to us is very important and useful. As Indian companies gain technology through these military joint-ventures, they'll be able to demonstrate benefits (eg. cost advantages) to their foreign business partners which far exceed the revenues of Indian state contracts. As Indians enter defense and other high-end markets, our growing military-industrial complex will be able to meet all kinds of wider needs. Who knows how many spin-offs may result?

Take a look at the Mahindra Axe, the Indian version of the Hummvee (Israeli-designed, of course), as an example of the unfolding future:

http://www.live.defenseworld.net/mahindra/index.html

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?t=118981

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RD4pE4wDB8 (Part 1/11)

Products like this, soon even to be introduced in civilian versions for the regular consumer markets, will help India to meet its defense needs, and even sell to export markets. High-end manufacturing with high-margin profits will draw the world to see similar goods produced in India. Software does not have to be the water's edge for us.

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